Castro brothers say 'Viva la revolucion'

Rory Porter

Cancel that Buena Vista Social Club gig in New York and put the McDonald's back in their containers on the Florida keys because the hated revolution - on an island less than a hundred miles away - is still alive and kicking. Fidel may have stepped down but Castro is still President of Cuba.

Raul Modesto Castro Ruz that is. Fidel's younger brother, who's 76 and the new president of Cuba, divides opinion like few other developing-world leaders today. Is he the pragmatic economic 'reformer' who tried to push through the introduction of market mechanisms in the 1990s, much to Fidel's displeasure? Or is he a grizzled revolutionary steeped in Communist dogma and dedicated to the continuation of a controlled economy and a lack of Western-style political freedom?

There have been some promising signs of things to come. Just days after Raul Castro was sworn in as the new president, Cuba signed two legally binding human rights agreements at the UN in New York. The covenants - part of the UN Bill of Human Rights - commit the country to freedom of expression and association and the right for its citizens to travel abroad.

But despite this wind of change, hard-line American president George W. Bush has been quick to say that there will be no end to the 48-year-old trade embargo despite 81-year-old Fidel's retirement. Couple this with American news networks milking, for all they're worth, footage of Raul and iconic radical Che Guevara arm in arm during Cuba's revolutionary war and it's easy to argue that nothing will change in the relations between the two hostile neighbours .

Yet the hard-line position from the Bush administration will only serve to further entrench the Communism they so despise on the Spanish-speaking, proud Caribbean island. It's true that Cubans have had to endure economic hardship for almost half a century but they have also enjoyed lasting peace and world-class health and education services. Compare this with the US-sponsored death-squads, political turmoil and grinding poverty across the water in south and central America and Castro and Bros.seem like a slightly more appealing option.

America's economic blockade has also given Cuban Communism a perfect excuse for every failing, especially that of an inflexible Soviet-era centrally planned economy. Average Cubans' exasperation at the almost static rates of economic growth has therefore never been directed at their government but at  "Yankee imperialists" in Washington and Miami, base of the powerful right-wing Cuban expats. Some pundits say these scary fanatics were behind the assassination of President John F. Kennedy whom they believed was going soft on the Communist Cuba from which they fled.

Raul has a glorious chance to make Cuban politics and society more relaxed without causing the total destruction of the revolution he loves. During his tenure as caretaker president, following Fidel's lengthy illness, he has shown signs, not only of knowing what needs to be done but also of having the courage to do it independently of his revered brother.

This is shown by Raol's attempts during the 1990s to implement an economic model more like that of China (unfettered paternalistic neo-capitalism) while promising to maintaining the strong social services for which Cuba is renowned. He has also released more than 50 dissidents in his time as leader, pointing perhaps to a more politically tolerant era.

Two thirds of Cubans have never lived under any leader other than Fidel, during his 49 years of rule, and while change is both necessary and sought after, its also a wee bit frightening for the revolutionary old guard. This is the reason why America has little chance of succeeding in its goals of making Cuba a new Mexico or an old, corrupt capitalist Cuba.

Cubans have understandably grown attached to their world-class health and education services and as long as the only way to gain America's blessing is the wholesale privatisation of utilities and introduction of a neo-liberal economic policy that would take that away from them, the majority of Cubans will stick with the devil they know. So Raul Castro, is probably saying: 'Viva la revolucion.' For now at least.